Friday, April 27, 2012

One Horse Race - Newt Takes the Boot

In case anybody noticed, Newt is out of the race. Barring a Ron Paul miracle (that would be interesting news) Mitt Romney is going to be 'the man' come November. Call me the realist, but 'the man' will lose in November too. Nothing really strikes me as 'enough' to pull out a victory. There needs to be a level of charisma to the individual, and one that also leverages good ideas. Yea, ardent Republicans will vote for Mitt, but here's the fact, it's not about the usual suspects.

American politics is fragmented, but it's not down the middle like many would think. There are probably close to equal parts, one Democrat, one Republican, but those parts aren't 50/50. It's more like 25/25, where 20/20 don't vote and the remaining 10% of voters are undecided. That swing will be key.

Im sure there's stats somewhere but I'm too lazy to find them. Post them below if you have some better numbers than my loose estimates.

But back to Mitt. There's little to compel young people to vote, lots to compel the so-called '1%' to get moving, but other than that, so far little to start a 'wave' of support required to win an election. Just my two cents.