Saturday, January 29, 2011

Recovery in California?


Check out bankruptcy stats. We're slowly creeping beyond highs only seen in the mid-90's.

With some cities, like San Diego, close to bankruptcy (we're talking the CITY might declare bankruptcy) it's pretty evident, we're still in an economic depression.

Some areas, like San Diego, Sacramenta, and even San Francisco to a lesser extent, continue to hit new highs for regular folks like you and me filings for bankruptcy.

However, that number is slowing. so we're hitting all time highs, but the rate at which the quarterly number (filings are calculated every quarter) seems to be slowing.

But it's still a full year perhaps from declining, and more afte rthat before recovery.

We're in it for th elong haul, and at this point I bet a ton of people are more interested in turning this ship around then screaming at politicians for 'not doing' enough.

Let's innovate and be better, and while we're at it keep the right people accountable.

Here are some more stats depending on where you're from (thanks to San Diego bankruptcy attorney Cecilia Chen for the stats compiled from Rand):

San Diego
Sacramento Bankruptcy
San Francisco Bankruptcy
LA Bankruptcy Stats


  1. I supervised the investigation of the Orange County Bankruptcy for Orange County DA in 1994.

    There is no "State Bankruptcy" since Chapter 9 applies only to municipalities, counties and districts.

    I don't know that the federal government will allow a state like California to go BK -- because California is a donor state. That means that it contributes (far) more to the federal treasury than it drains out. In fact, California is the LARGEST total contributor to the federal treasury of all 50 states in terms of absolute amounts.

    Under CH 9, the city/county is allowed to keep all of its locally generated revenue to rebuild itself. (revenue sharing is discontinued and it keeps everything during the BK period)

    If California declared bankruptcy under a Chapter 9 format, it would be allowed to KEEP the billions it gives to Washington every year for the purpose of rebuilding whatever the court allowed - pension systems, state parks, and the list goes on. The loser would be the bankrupt federal government, NOT California.

    So the picture is very different than that harbored by most people.

  2. Yes, I implied that cities were more likely to declare, not the state.....

    Although when we look at the consumer, things are turning around in 2011 (or expected to at least). Or it could be an indicator that there's nobody left to declare :P

    Thanks for your input, really valued.